Fixed Mobile Convergence Industry News

TMCNet: 1Q10 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Total Wireless Subscribers in Canada to Reach 30.7 Million in 2014

[February 10, 2010]

1Q10 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Total Wireless Subscribers in Canada to Reach 30.7 Million in 2014

(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Dublin - Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a72e2a/1q10_canada_mobile) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q10 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Canada will have 30.7 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014 with Rogers Wireless taking 37.8% market share" to their offering.

Mobile Operator Forecast on Canada provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Canadian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation), and MTS Allstream Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the worlds population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

So what is IEMRs Forecast? Total wireless subscribers in Canada to reach 30.7 million in 2014 - According to our forecasting model, total mobile subscribers in Canada will increase from 23.1 million in 2009 to 30.7 million in 2014.

- We expect that Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber base increase from 8.58 million in 2009 to 11.6 million in 2014.

- Also, we forecast that Bell Mobility will have 8.93 million mobile subscribers and Telus Mobility will have 8.92 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014.

Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years - Our model predicts that Rogers Wireless will continue to lead Canada in market shares. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber market share will increase from 37.2% in 2009 to 37.8% in 2014.

- Also, Telus Mobility's market share will increase slightly from 28.6% in 2009 to 29.1% in 2014.

- On the other hand, we expect Bell Mobility's share of total subscribers to decline from 30.2% in 2009 to 29.1% in 2014.

The overall ARPU level expected to decrease over the next several years - Our model predicts that the industry will see an overall decrease in operator ARPUs over the next five years.

- Rogers Wireless will continue to enjoy a higher ARPU level than Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility, but we still expect that Rogers Wireless's monthly ARPU will decline from C$ 63.32 in 2009 to C$ 59.02 in 2014.

- On the other hand, average ARPU levels at Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility will decline to C$ 51.19 and C$ 40.52 respectively in 2014, according to our model.

Profitability at Rogers Wireless will improve over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014 - We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be approximately 45.4% in 2014, slightly up from 44.6% in 2009.

- Our forecasting model predicts that Rogers Wireless will see its EBITDA margin increase from 46.2% in 2009 to 51.9% in 2014.

Companies Mentioned: - Bell Mobility Inc.

- Rogers Wireless Inc.

- Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation) - MTS Allstream Inc.

- Other Bell Mobility Inc. Affiliates For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a72e2a/1q10_canada_mobile ((Comments on this story may be sent to info@m2.com)) (c) 2010 M2 COMMUNICATIONS

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